The New York Jets will return home to host the Indianapolis Colts at MetLife Stadium in Week 11. To help preview the matchup, JJ Stankevitz of Colts.com and John Pullano of NYJets.com chatted about the game.
On Wednesday Colts HC Shane Steichen named QB Anthony Richardson their Week 11 starter. The Colts have lost 3 in a row, and 2 straight since they benched Richardson in Week 9. What does the second-year signal caller bring to the offense? And how does this Colts offense matchup with the New York defense?
JS: Anthony Richardson, first and foremost, brings a certain dimension to the Colts' run game – his ability has consistently opened lanes for RB Jonathan Taylor. In Richardson's 6 starts, the Colts are averaging 5 yards per carry. In the 4 games he didn't start, they're averaging 4.1 YPC. The Colts are also averaging an explosive run (10-plus yards) on 20.8% of their attempts in the games Richardson starts, versus 11.6% with Joe Flacco. This is probably where I would start for how the Colts match up against the Jets, who are allowing an explosive rush on 14.3% of opponent attempts, 24th in the NFL. If the Colts can churn out chunk gains on the ground – think getting a first down on a first-and-10 handoff – it'll make things much easier for Richardson in his return. One other interesting note here – the Jets are second in the NFL in sacks, but Richardson has proven over his career to be adept at avoiding getting sacked. When Richardson has started and finished a game this season, he's been sacked on just 6% of his drop backs, while the Jets' defense has generated a sack on 9.6% of opponent dropbacks.
The Jets' defense allowed 30-plus points and 400 total yards against Arizona in Week 10, for only the fourth time in the last 2 seasons. How does this unit bounce back from an uncharacteristic performance versus Indy?
JP: The Jets bread and butter on defense the past two seasons has been their ability to get pressure rushing four and playing lock down defense in the secondary. Last season, the Jets blitzed on 16.3% of snaps, second lowest rate in the league, and got pressure on 26.5% of dropbacks, third highest rate. This season, they have been much more reliant on blitzing, sending an extra rusher on 25.4% of snaps, and getting pressure at a similar rate to the past two seasons, 26.9% of dropbacks. Quinnen Williams (5.0 sacks,13 QB hits) and Will McDonald IV (8.0 sacks, 15 QB hits) have been dominant this season, but had their worst games last week versus Arizona (1 QB hit, 0 sacks between the two). For the Jets to play a style that is conducive to their personal, it starts with getting pressure with four versus QB Anthony Richardson and the Colts.
The Colts' defense has forced the eighth-most turnovers in the league this season (17) but over the past 3 weeks has struggled to contain three prolific offenses in Houston, Buffalo and Minnesota, allowing 24.7 PPG. How do they right the ship on defense? How will they look to contain QB Aaron Rodgers and the Jets' offense?
JS: I think the numbers on defense are a little mis-leading, at least recently. Seven of those opponent points came on a pick-6, and another 7 came after Richardson threw a pick deep in Texans territory in Week 8. I would charge this defense with allowing 20 PPG over the last 3 weeks, and they've had to do that while being on the field for a borderline-unsustainable amount of time (35:20 vs. Houston, 36:54 vs. Minnesota, 32:08 vs. Buffalo). DC Gus Bradley has a reputation of playing a four-down pass rush with plenty of Cover-3 behind it, but he's made tweaks over the last few weeks. He played Cover-3 on over half their defensive snaps in Weeks 1-5. That rate dropped to around 40% in Weeks 6-10 – still highest in the NFL – but he has sprinkled in more Cover-2. Look for rookie defensive end Laiatu Latu to line up as a spinner over an interior offensive lineman, and he'll even line up as an off-ball linebacker to rush the passer in certain looks. LBs Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed have proven to be both adept at blitzing and skilled at bailing into coverage when mugged up over the A-gap, too. All this has led to, as you mentioned, an uptick in turnovers generated by the Colts' defense. Aaron Rodgers may complete a high percentage of his passes, but the Colts will look to limit explosive plays, create pressure and force a turnover or two on Sunday.
Of the Jets' three red zone trips last week, 1 resulted in points, a 25-yard field goal by K Spencer Shrader. Going into Week 10, the Jets ranked 13th in red-zone-touchdown conversion rate (57.1%). How do the Jets get back on track in the red zone at home?
JP: I am going to have to refer to the future Hall of Fame signal caller Aaron Rodgers on this one. Following their Week 10 loss, he said about the failures in the redzone: "They'd played really good on defense. I missed a couple of throws, and we were just really bad." The Jets have been above league average when it comes to operating inside the 20-yard line but sometimes, as this league goes, opponents can get the better of you. As Rodgers said, they created plenty of opportunities to score 7 points against Arizona but failed to execute. The two weeks prior to the Arizona, the Jets were coming away with TDs on 70% of their red zone trips. I don't think there needs to be any drastic changes on offense for the Jets to start succeeding in the red zone. As Rodgers said, they just need to "start executing." The Green & White will have a chance to get back on track against the Colts' defense that ranks 26th in red zone defense allowing TDs on 57% of opponent's trips.
Which player on the Colts or the Jets has improved this season and should be part of the opposing team's gameplan as they prepare for Sunday?
JS: The Colts' defense has started to come together with the return of two players who missed time early in the season – DT DeForest Buckner and CB Kenny Moore II. Buckner sustained an ankle injury in Week 2 and didn't return until Week 8, while Moore missed Weeks 4 and 5. Buckner's return has helped the Colts get into more unique blitz packages while providing a boost in run defense. With Moore's presence on the field, settling things down for a largely young unit, he's registered an interception and a fumble recovery touchdown in the last 2 weeks.
JP: I am going to go with the Jets O-line. The last 5 weeks, the Jets' unit has been getting progressively healthier culminating in their entire starting group playing together for the first time since Week 7 last week versus Arizona. Through Week 10, the Jets had allowed a sack on 6.0% of their pass attempts, the fourth best rate in the AFC and the ninth best in the NFL. In addition, Rodgers was pressured 8.8 times per game on dropbacks the last 5 weeks, compared to 11.4 time per game the first 5 weeks, when the line was missing several key contributors.
