Aaron Glenn is in the house. The job he was most interested in is now his, and he's already taking a deep dive into the workload as Jets head coach in bringing his staff together and micro-evaluating the roster with new GM Darren Mougey.
The 2025 schedule is still well in the future, but it will be here before we know it. What is the likelihood of Jets success in Glenn's first season as an NFL head coach?
We can view that question from different angles. From a personal perspective, Glenn's contributions as Detroit's defensive coordinator led to an unmistakable conclusion. The Lions' regular-season productivity increased annually, from 3-13-1 his first season as DC in '21 to 9-8, 12-5 and 15-2. Their scoring defense, a related metric tied to Glenn's coaching, also rose, slowly then rapidly, from 31st to 28th to 23rd to 7th.
It's also true that winning football and playoff berths happen in the first seasons of first-time NFL head coaches all the time. We won't go through the league's history, which is well-populated with first-time head coaches who made good fast. But focusing just on the Jets' history in the new millennium, they displayed initial success with several head coaching hires.
Herm Edwards' teams from 2001-05 produced three winning teams and three playoff berths, Eric Mangini's first outfit in 2006 went 10-6 and also reached the postseason, and Rex Ryan's first two teams gained AFC Championship Game berths after the 2009 and '10 seasons. The Jets' most recent .500-plus team at 10-6 was also Todd Bowles' first at the Green & White controls in '15.
But from another perspective, for most, it don't come easy. We examined all NFL first-time head coaches since 2020 for a read on how easy or hard it is to get their programs up and running.
Five coaches demonstrated that fast starts can be achieved. Here is a list of the five men who had never been head coaches before and led their franchises to the playoffs — and all did it in their first seasons as HCs:
| 1st-Time HC | Team | Seasons | RS W-L, Pct. | PO Berths |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sirianni | PHI | 2021-24 | 48-20, .706 | 4 (2 SBs) |
| Kevin O'Connell | MIN | 2022-24 | 34-17, .667 | 2 |
| Mike McDaniel | MIA | 2022-24 | 28-24, .538 | 2 |
| DeMeco Ryans | HOU | 2023-24 | 20-14, .588 | 2 |
Yet these impressive starts mask the odds against enjoying such quick success. Consider that from 2020-25, 18 times NFL teams named head coaches who had never been HCs before. The combined record for all those new coaches: 321-403, a .443 winning percentage. Of those 18 newly minted head coaches, only five reached the playoffs in their first seasons (the five in the above chart).
Of the 12 first-time head coaches hired from 2020-22, just seven finished their third seasons still with the teams that hired them and only four are still HCs of those teams now, following the '24 season.
What does it all mean? Not a lot. Even Bill Parcells, whom Glenn and many others have called "the best to ever coach this game," needed time to build. His first HC experience was 3-12-1 with the Giants in '83. Then, no longer a first-time first-year boss, his first New England team went 5-11 in '93. He needed a year as the Jets' mentor in '97, which ended with a postseason-shattering loss at (where else?) Detroit before the Green & White strode to the '98 AFC title game.
As Glenn said when asked about a particular comparison to his former head coach: "That's Parcells. I'm Aaron Glenn." Glenn and the '25 Jets will be what they will be, and we are invited, along with players, coaches and all wearers of the green and white, to "buckle up and enjoy the ride."
