In honor of Iron Chef and Iron Chef: America, we have naming week's edition of Inside the Numbers in the style of an episode of the long-running cable food shows:
Battle: Turnover
There's no telling if turnovers, being unpredictable football fare, will play a pivotal role in Sunday's MetLife Stadium clash between the Jets and Colts. But they may well be on the menu.
Jets Offense Must Be on the Lookout
QB Aaron Rodgers has personally given the ball away 8 times this season (7 INTs, 1 FUM), up there but not his most after 10 games of a season (11 in 2022, 10 in 2016). The past 3 games, he's thrown no picks and lost the one stripsack at Arizona.
As for the A-Rod offense, it is 16th, right in the middle of the NFL pack, in terms of turnover drive rate, with Jets giveaways ending 10.9% of their offensive possessions, same as the league average.
The Colts defense, meanwhile, has been one of the NFL's best takeaway machines, with 9 fumble recoveries, tied for first in the league. The Indy defense has done it all different ways with 4 stripsacks, 3 fumble recoveries off rushes and 2 off receptions. Two games ago, CB Kenny Moore returned a strip of the Vikings' Sam Darnold for a TD. The Jets must beware on all levels of their offense.
Hungry Jets D, Generous Colts QBs
The story on the other side of the ball is different. Colts HC Shane Steichen named Richardson his starter for the Jets over Joe Flacco late this week. Richardson has done some good things but he and Flacco also have put the ball in the other teams' hands. Anthony Richardson has committed 9 personal giveaways (7 INTs, 2 FUMs), Flacco 8 (5 INTs, 3 FUMs).
Unofficially, among the 36 QBs with at least 40 drives this season, Richardson's offense is 33rd in team turnover drive rate (15.5%), while with Flacco starting, the Colts lost 8 of their TOs during their current 3-game losing streak, tied for the most in the NFL in that span..
This is all music to Jets defenders' ears. For several reasons, the Green & White have only 2 interceptions all season, both by CB Brandin Echols, and that number is 30th in the NFL. Sauce Gardner hasn't had a pick since his 2022 rookie season, a stretch of 34 games, fellow CB D.J. Reed has gone 14 games without a theft, and slot corner Michael Carter, if he's available, has a 32-game INT-less drought also stretching to '22.
Will the Jets defense chow down on turnovers at home on Sunday? Will Richardson and the Colts put a clamp on the flow of free food for their opponents? Or will it be a wash. Both teams' playoff viability for the final seven weeks of the regular season may depend on the answer.
