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Throughout the offseason, NewYorkJets.com reporters Eric Allen, Ethan Greenberg, Randy Lange, Caroline Hendershot and John Pullano will give their responses to a series of questions regarding this year's Jets.
Today's question: What type of numbers do you expect from Jets WR Garrett Wilson in 2024?
EA: Let's consider this first. Playing with seven different quarterbacks his first two NFL seasons, Garrett Wilson averaged 89 receptions, 1,073 yards and 3 TDs. His 168 targets (9.9 per game) ranked fourth in the league last season only surpassed by CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill were targeted more. When the Jets passed the ball, 30% of the time it was going Wilson's way. The expectation is we're finally going to see Wilson paired with a healthy Aaron Rodgers in September and beyond. I think a good point of context here is Rodgers' pairing with Davante Adams in Green Bay from 2018-21. With Adams averaging 14 games in those four seasons, he had averages of 154 targets, 108 receptions, 1,327 yards and 12 TDs. Rodgers and Wilson displayed great chemistry throughout the spring and last summer when the four-time NFL MVP talked of how the Jets' No. 5 reminded him of Adams with his ability to get in and out of breaks and quick twitch at the line of scrimmage. Rodgers will spread the wealth with ball distribution, but Wilson and Breece Hall are stars and they'll lead the way. If Wilson plays a full season, he'll have 150-plus targets and produce with more than 100 catches, 1,300-plus yards and he could reach double-digit TDs.
EG: I expect Garrett Wilson to, at least, have his best statistical season so far. The chemistry between Aaron Rodgers and Wilson, now wearing No. 5, didn't seem to miss a beat in the spring even though Rodgers missed essentially all of last season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. Without Rodgers, Wilson reeled in 95 passes from four quarterbacks, 1,042 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wilson will eclipse 100 receptions for the first time in his career if he and his signal-caller are healthy and play all 17 games. His receiving yards will increase, too. Looking at Davante Adams' numbers with Rodgers provides good context, but Rodgers' history with successful No. 1 receivers predates Adams. Jordy Nelson, from 2011-16, averaged 1,364 yards and 13 touchdowns. Greg Jennings averaged 1,279 yards and 10 touchdowns from 2007-10. Wilson's style, however, is most similar to Adams. I think it's fair to expect at least 1,300 receiving yards and close to double-digit touchdowns as the Jets have a lot of weapons on offense who can find the end zone.
See the best photos of WR Garrett Wilson throughout the offseason.
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RL: I think it's reasonable to anticipate numbers similar to GW's first two seasons in green and white, especially with a healthy Aaron Rodgers and a fortified OL. If we just average his '22 and '23 seasons, he should total 89 catches for 1,073 yards and 4 TDs. Of course he and we will want more, and in particular, with a stronger skill group surrounding him, I expect to see Wilson's TD production plus his career yards/catch (12.1) and YAC (3.8) figures all rise. It would be unfair to "expect" Wilson to go for the all-time Jets records in many of those receiving categories, but wouldn't it be a delightful subtext to the '24 season if Wilson can approach Brandon Marshall's mind-blowing 2015 season in which he set franchise marks with 109 catches, 1,502 yards, 14 TD receptions (tied with Art Powell in 1960 and Don Maynard in '65) and 76 first-down grabs?
CH: It's hard to guarantee anything in the NFL, but I expect Garrett Wilson to have his best statistical season in 2024. Wilson has been able to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons in his first two years in the NFL, all while playing with myriad quarterbacks. Last season, Wilson totaled 1,042 yards and 3 touchdowns with four different quarterbacks. In 2022, with three starting quarterbacks, Wilson won Offensive Rookie of the Year with his 1,103 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. If Aaron Rodgers is able to stay healthy at QB for all 17 games this regular season, the chemistry between him and Wilson will flourish. I could see Wilson's numbers up there with Davante Adams' in 2020 when he and Rodgers were All-Pros. In the 2020 season, Adams had 1,374 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns and while I don't expect Wilson's touchdown numbers to be that high, I wouldn't say it's out of question. I think Wilson will be well over 1,100 yards and have at least 8 touchdowns.
JP: I want to make a one-to-one comparison of Garrett Wilson to Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans. Evans spent the first six years of his career in Tampa Bay catching passes from an inconsistent group of signal-callers and still managed six consecutive 1,000-plus yard receiving seasons despite a single season with double-digit touchdowns. In Evans' seventh year, the Buccaneers signed future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady and Evans exploded for 13-plus touchdown grabs in three of the next four seasons. Wilson, in his first two NFL seasons, had 1,000-plus yards in each despite playing with six quarterbacks. With the return of Aaron Rodgers in 2024, I expect Wilson to double his touchdown total from his first two seasons (7) with 14 touchdowns in 2024-25, 90-plus receptions and 1,200-plus yards. As a bonus, I think there's a good chance he'll earn his first selection to the Pro Bowl.