Jeff Ulbrich is preparing this week to execute one of the tough tasks in the NFL — take over as a team's head coach during the season and get that team on a playoff run.
Some might consider that pressure, but not Ulbrich, who said this week: "Regardless of what the roster looks like on paper, it doesn't change how I approach it. It doesn't. I approach every day the same regardless of circumstances. You commit to a process and then you let the process take care of the results."
Most other teams' and most other interim coaches' processes haven't been up to this major task. The Jets, as we know, had only two in-season head-coaching changes in their history, in 1975 when Ken Shipp replaced Charley Winner and the next year when Mike Holovak finished up as the HC in the season finale for Lou Holtz. Those two seasons the Jets were a combined 6-22.
Only one NFL team in the past four decades has successfully walked this sideline tightrope to the postseason. Only four teams in pro football history have done it:
| Season, Team | Start Coach, Rec | End Coach, Rec | Season Rec, POs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1942 Chicago Bears | George Halas (5-0) | HAnderson/LJonsos (6-0) | 11-0, Lost NFL Champ |
| 1952 L.A. Rams | Joe Stydahar (0-1) | Hamp Pool (9-2) | 9-3, Lost Div Round |
| 1961 Houston Oilers | Lou Rymkus (1-3-1) | Wally Lemm (9-0) | 10-3-1, Won AFL Champ |
| 2021 Las Vegas Raiders | Jon Gruden (3-2) | Rich Bisaccia (7-5) | 10-7, Lost WC Round |
But let's take a little shorter view. You might think that teams making such an important change would often get a new-coach bounce in that first game. In fact, they have won more than they've lost in those games since 2010, but not by much.
Of the 29 new in-season head coaches in the previous 14 seasons (2010-23), 15 have won their first games and nine have lost their openers. Looking only at new head coaches starting their tenures at home, the record is even less impressive: 6 wins, 4 losses. And only seven of the 29 coaches who came on in the middle of the stream posted winning records during their shortened tenure.
All of this makes Ulbrich's climb ahead like trying to scale El Capitan wearing a catcher's mitt and clown shoes. But the Jets' situation is just a little different from most of those teams since 2010. For one thing, none of them had Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Except for the 2018 Packers, who in fact had Rodgers at QB when they opened at 4-7-1 under Mike McCarthy and finished 2-2 under Joe Philbin.
And of those 29 teams, only one had a top-5 ranking in any of the four NFL categories of offensive yardage, defensive yardage, points scored and points allowed. That team was last year's Panthers, who finished fourth in total defense despite their 2-15 record.
The Jets, however, besides having A-Rod on offense, have the NFL's No. 2 units in overall and passing defenses and in sacks/pass attempts.
Put them all together and the Jets at least have a chance to break with NFL tradition and ride their in-season coaching change to a hot streak and a ticket to the big dance. Much of it comes down to how the players answer the question: When they commit to Ulbrich's process, what will the results be?
