In the past week, Inside the Numbers broke out some statistical goals and milestones that individual Jets players may be taking aim at this season.
The Green & White also has team hurdles that they want to clear. The defense seeks to challenge for the title of the NFL's "No. 1 D" and is questing for more turnovers and better run defense. The offense aims to get to where it wanted to be last year, which means improving on all those rankings that sank into the 30s — overall and passing offense, first downs made, third-down and red-zone opps converted.
But one of the most important number goals the Jets can achieve in the next 18 weeks to maximize the chances of attaining their long elusive goals of reaching the playoffs and contending for the Lombardi Trophy is to play from ahead more than they play from behind.
Paging Captain Obvious.
Regardless, the Jets know that they have to unlock the secret to this skill that has eluded them for more than a decade, and head coach Robert Saleh, entering his fourth season at the Green & White helm, already has them thinking that way as they prepare to open the new season at San Francisco on Monday night.
"When you're playing with a lead, it allows you to dictate the pace of the game and forces the opponent to play catchup," Saleh said this summer. "It gives our defense more opportunities to be aggressive and create turnovers. On the other hand, playing from behind puts pressure on our offense to score quickly, which can lead to mistakes."
It sounds redundant, but it's not automatic that the most time ahead leads to the most victories. On a game basis, the Browns are Exhibit A in this area. Early in the '22 season, the Jets held the lead at Cleveland for just 22 seconds. Fortunately for them, it was the last 22 seconds of the game in which they scored two TDs in the final 1:22 for their 31-30 comeback win. But the Browns last season trailed at Baltimore from 40 seconds into the game until Dustin Hopkins' 40-yard field goal gave them a 33-31 walkoff win despite having 0:00 of lead time to the Ravens' 59:40..
As for full seasons, Chicago in '23 was 10th in the NFL, averaging 26:33 of lead time every game, yet finished 7-10 and out of the postseason. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, was 26th with an average lead time of 19:13, yet went 10-7 and made the playoffs. (The Jets at 12:56 were 31st.)
But in general, it's a good thing to lead in a game more than one's opponents. As far as which statistics translate into more wins, point differential is always No. 1 (last year's top eight point-margin teams had a .724 winning percentage and all eight went to the playoffs). Lead time/trailing time differential (.709, seven teams) was virtually equal to yardage differential (713, seven) as a win indicator. Turnover margin (.644, six) and possession time margin (.604, four) both finished out of the .700 club.
A few charts show what the Jets have done with the lead and without it.
We took their last 27 seasons, from 1998 through last year, and broke them into three sets of nine seasons each The top nine had the most average time spent in the lead, the bottom nine had the least time spent ahead. Here are the combined records and playoff appearances for all three groups:
| Avg Lead Time/Gm | Seasons | W-L, Pct. | PO Berths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26:40-up | 9 | 90-54, .625 | 6 |
| 16:00-26:39 | 9 | 62-82, .431 | 1 |
| 15:59-down | 9 | 45-102, .306 | 0 |
And here are those top nine Jets seasons since '98 listed by most lead time per game and how those teams fared in the more important win percentage and playoff categories:
| Season | Lead (W-L) | Season | Lead (W-L) | Season | Lead (W-L) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 32:44 (12-4, PO) | 2008 | 28:43 (9-7) | 2015 | 26:52 (10-6) |
| 2009 | 32:10 (9-7, PO) | 2006 | 27:31 (10-6, PO) | 2010 | 26:51 (11-5, PO) |
| 1997 | 29:59 (9-7) | 2001 | 26:53 (10-6, PO) | 2004 | 26:45 (10-6, PO) |
Interspersed with these decent Jets seasons were others that pulled their lead time/game down to 30th in the NFL for 2005-23 combined. But we don't need to remind anyone that with a healthy Aaron Rodgers — whose Packers averaged about 29 minutes/game in the lead when he was their starting QB from 2008-22 and more than 31 minutes of lead time when A-Rod played his 13 full seasons — the Jets are in good hands as they take aim at the simple yet powerful mission Saleh has set out for them in '24:
"Our goal this season is to start strong and maintain that momentum throughout the game."
